Macro Indicators Summary and Analysis

The latest economic indicators show a mixed picture for the US economy. The Core PCE Price Index, which measures inflation, increased by 2.6% year-over-year, while Core Durable Goods Orders rose by 1.0%. These numbers indicate a moderate level of price growth and steady demand for long-lasting goods.

On the job front, new jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 235,000, signaling a slight improvement in the labor market. Continuing claims also fell, indicating that fewer people are relying on unemployment benefits. However, the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2%.

Consumer spending saw a modest increase of 0.3% in June, with gains in services and nondurable goods. Disposable personal income also rose by 0.2%. Adjusted for inflation, real consumer spending was up 2.6% year-over-year, while disposable personal income increased by 1.0% year-over-year.

In the housing market, existing home sales fell by 5.4% in June, reaching the slowest pace since December. New home sales also declined by 0.6%, with varying regional trends. The median sales price for existing homes reached a record high of $426,900.

Durable goods orders experienced a sharp decline in June, driven by a drop in civilian aircraft orders. However, core business orders rose by 1.0%, reversing a previous decline. Overall, the economy grew at a 2.8% annual rate in the second quarter, driven by consumer spending, business investment, and government spending.

Oil prices retreated due to challenges in China, while natural gas prices eased as production kept up with demand. The chemical industry showed mixed results, with chemical railcar loadings up year-over-year but global chemical production stalling in June.

Overall, the economic outlook remains uncertain, with some sectors showing strength while others face challenges. Stay tuned for more updates on the evolving economic landscape.