Federal Modelling Data Shows Carbon Pricing Will Lower Emissions by 12% by 2030

OTTAWA – Newly released federal modelling data on carbon pricing has revealed that it is projected to lower greenhouse gas emissions by more than 12 per cent a year by 2030, while also shaving 0.9 per cent off the national GDP.

The government had been hesitant to share this data, as it does not include factors such as the cost of climate change or the potential economic growth from climate investments. However, the information is now being made public as the House of Commons prepares to debate a Conservative motion calling for its release.

The data, which was provided to the parliamentary budget officer Yves Giroux by Environment Canada, shows that carbon pricing, both for consumers and big industry, contributed to a reduction of 25 million tonnes of emissions last year. This number is expected to increase annually, with emissions cuts reaching 78 million tonnes by 2030.

While the data indicates a decrease in GDP by $25 billion in 2030 due to carbon pricing, it does not take into account potential benefits such as carbon rebates for families or investments made by businesses to lower emissions.

Giroux’s analysis found that the carbon rebates handed out to families exceed the cost of the carbon price for about eight in 10 families, with lower-income families benefiting the most. However, the Liberals and Giroux have been at odds over the impact of carbon pricing on family incomes, with the Liberals arguing that his analysis does not consider the economic impacts of climate change.

Overall, the data suggests that carbon pricing will play a significant role in reducing emissions and meeting Canada’s 2030 targets, but the full economic impact remains a topic of debate.